Project risk evaluation by using a new fuzzy model based on Elena guideline
Abstract
The complexity and dynamics of the executive projects have coped contractors with substantial hazards and losses. Project risk management is a critical tool for authority to improve its performance and secure the success of the organization. However, a number of standards and approaches have been developed to formulate the projects based on their risks. The Elena guideline is a systematic standard developed by Iran Project Management Association. This guideline provides the full cycle of the risk management process. Risk evaluation is the key part of the risk management process. On the other hand, different techniques have been developed to model a risk evaluation problem. Fuzzy inference system is one of the most popular techniques that is capable of handling all types of the uncertainty involved in projects. This paper proposes a three-stage approach based on the fuzzy inference system under the environment of the Elena guideline to cope with the risky projects. Finally, an illustrative example of the risk evaluation is presented to demonstrate the potential application of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model evaluates the risky projects efficiently and effectively.
Keyword : project risk evaluation, Rah Gostar Naft Company, fuzzy inference system, Elena guideline
How to Cite
Asadi, P., Rezaeian Zeidi, J., Mojibi, T., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., & Tamošaitienė, J. (2018). Project risk evaluation by using a new fuzzy model based on Elena guideline. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 24(4), 284-300. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2018.3070
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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AS/NZS 4360 Risk management. Standards Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2004.
Badri, A.; Nadeau, S.; Gbodossou, A. 2012. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation, Accident Analysis & Prevention 48: 223–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.05.009
Cano, A.; Cruz, M. P. 2002. Integrated methodology for project risk management, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 128: 473–485. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:6(473)
Carbone, T. A.; Tippett, D. D. 2004. Project risk management using the project risk FMEA, Engineering Management Journal 16(4): 28–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10429247.2004.11415263
Carvalho, M. M.; Junior, R. R. 2015. Impact of risk management on project performance: the importance of soft skills, International Journal of Production Research 53(2): 321–340. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2014.919423
Chapman, C. 1997. Project risk analysis and management-PRAM the generic process, International Journal of Project Management 15(5): 273–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(96)00079-8
Chapman, C. B. 1990. A risk engineering approach to project risk management, Risk Management 8(1): 5–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(90)90003-T
Chapman, R. J. 2014. The rules of project risk management: Implementation guidelines for major projects. Gower.
Chatterjee, K.; Zavadskas, E. K.; Tamošaitienė, J.; Adhikary, K.; Kar, S. 2018. A Hybrid MCDM technique for risk management in construction projects, Symmetry 10(2): 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10020046
Cooper, D. F.; Grey, S.; Raymond, G.; Walker, P. 2005. Project risk management guidelines: Managing risk in large projects and complex procurements. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Dey, P. K. 2002. Project risk management: A combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach, Cost Engineering 44(3): 13–26.
Dey, P. K. 2010. Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map, Applied Soft Computing 10(4): 990–1000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2010.03.010
Dey, P. K. 2012. Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery, Production Planning & Control 23(12): 903–921. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2011.586379
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Ilbahar, E.; Karaşan, A.; Cebi, S.; Kahraman, C. 2018. A novel approach to risk assessment for occupational health and safety using Pythagorean fuzzy AHP & fuzzy inference system, Safety Science 103: 124–136.
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Jamshidi, A.; Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Yakhchali, S. H.; Khaleghi, S. 2013. Developing a new fuzzy inference system for pipeline risk assessment, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 26(1): 197–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2012.10.010
Keramati, A.; Nazari-Shirkouhi, S.; Moshki, H.; Afshari-Mofrad, M.; Maleki-Berneti, E. 2013a. A novel methodology for evaluating the risk of CRM projects in fuzzy environment, Neural Computing and Applications 23(Suppl 1): S29–S53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-012-1216-7
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Licata, G. 2012. Fuzzy logic, knowledge and natural language, in M. F. Azeem (Ed.). Fuzzy inference system – theory and applications. InTech, 3–18.
Liu, H. C.; Liu, L.; Liu, N.; Mao, L. X. 2012. Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis with extended VIKOR method under fuzzy environment, Expert Systems with Applications 39(17): 12926–12934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.05.031
Liu, J.; Li, Q.; Wang, Y. 2013. Risk analysis in ultra deep scientific drilling project – A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach, International Journal of Project Management 31: 449–458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.09.015
Liu, P.; Zhang, X.; Liu, W. 2011. A risk evaluation method for the high-tech project investment based on uncertain linguistic variables, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78: 40–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.011
Loch, C. H.; DeMeyer, A.; Pich, M. 2006. Managing the unknown: A new approach to managing high uncertainty and risk in projects. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470172377
Marcelino-Sádaba, S.; Pérez-Ezcurdia, A.; Lazcano, A. M. E.; Villanueva, P. 2014. Project risk management methodology for small firms, International Journal of Project Management 32(2): 327–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.05.009
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Razani, M.; Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Yakhchali, S. H. 2013. A novel fuzzy inference system for predicting roof fall rate in underground coal mines, Safety Science 55: 26–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.11.008
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Tüysüz, F.; Kahraman, C. 2006. Project risk evaluation using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: An application to information technology projects, International Journal of Intelligent Systems 21: 559–584. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20148
Valipour, A.; Yahaya, N.; Noor, N. M.; Mardani, A.; Antuchevičienė, J. 2016. A new hybrid fuzzy cybernetic analytic network process model to identify shared risks in PPP projects, International Journal of Strategic Property Management 20(4): 409–426. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1210547
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Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Yakhchali, S. H.; Mahmoodian, M. 2013. Risk ranking of tunnel construction projects by using the ELECTRE technique under a fuzzy environment, International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management 8(1): 1–14.
Zadeh, L. A. 1965. Fuzzy sets, Information and Control 8(3): 338–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X
Zavadskas, E. K.; Turskis, Z.; Tamošaitienė, J. 2008. Construction risk assessment of small scale objects by applying TOPSIS method with attributes values determined at intervals, in The 8th International Conference “Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication” (RelStat-08), 15–18 October 2008, Riga, Latvia, 351–357.
Zavadskas, E. K.; Turskis, Z.; Tamošaitiene, J. 2010. Risk assessment of construction projects, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 16(1): 33–46. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2010.03
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AS/NZS 4360 Risk management. Standards Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2004.
Badri, A.; Nadeau, S.; Gbodossou, A. 2012. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation, Accident Analysis & Prevention 48: 223–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.05.009
Cano, A.; Cruz, M. P. 2002. Integrated methodology for project risk management, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 128: 473–485. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:6(473)
Carbone, T. A.; Tippett, D. D. 2004. Project risk management using the project risk FMEA, Engineering Management Journal 16(4): 28–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10429247.2004.11415263
Carvalho, M. M.; Junior, R. R. 2015. Impact of risk management on project performance: the importance of soft skills, International Journal of Production Research 53(2): 321–340. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2014.919423
Chapman, C. 1997. Project risk analysis and management-PRAM the generic process, International Journal of Project Management 15(5): 273–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(96)00079-8
Chapman, C. B. 1990. A risk engineering approach to project risk management, Risk Management 8(1): 5–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(90)90003-T
Chapman, R. J. 2014. The rules of project risk management: Implementation guidelines for major projects. Gower.
Chatterjee, K.; Zavadskas, E. K.; Tamošaitienė, J.; Adhikary, K.; Kar, S. 2018. A Hybrid MCDM technique for risk management in construction projects, Symmetry 10(2): 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10020046
Cooper, D. F.; Grey, S.; Raymond, G.; Walker, P. 2005. Project risk management guidelines: Managing risk in large projects and complex procurements. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Dey, P. K. 2002. Project risk management: A combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach, Cost Engineering 44(3): 13–26.
Dey, P. K. 2010. Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map, Applied Soft Computing 10(4): 990–1000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2010.03.010
Dey, P. K. 2012. Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery, Production Planning & Control 23(12): 903–921. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2011.586379
Ebrat, M.; Ghodsi, R. 2014. Construction project risk assessment by using adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system: An empirical study, KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 18(5): 1213–1227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-014-0139-5
El-Razek, M. E. A.; Bassioni, H. A.; Mobarak, A. M. 2008. Causes of delay in building construction projects in Egypt, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 134(11): 831–841. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2008)134:11(831)
Endut, I. R.; Shehu, Z.; Akintoye, A.; Jaafar, A. 2009. Cost and time of construction projects in Malaysia, in Fifth International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century (CITC-V) “Collaboration and Integration in Engineering, Management and Technology”, 20–22 May 2009, Istanbul, Turkey.
Fouladgar, M. M.; Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Zavadskas, E. K. 2012. Risk evaluation of tunneling projects, Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering 12(1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.acme.2012.03.008
Hashemi, H.; Mousavi, S. M.; Mojtahedi, S. M. H. 2011. Bootstrap technique for risk analysis with interval numbers in bridge construction projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 137: 600–608. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000344
Hillson, D.; Grimaldi, S.; Rafele, C. 2006. Managing project risks using a cross risk breakdown matrix, Risk Management 8(1): 61–76. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.825
Hu, A. H.; Hsu, C. W.; Kuo, T. C.; Wu, W. C. 2009. Risk evaluation of green components to hazardous substance using FMEA and FAHP, Expert Systems with Applications 36(3): 7142–7147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.08.031
IEC 62198 Project risk management – Application guidelines. International Electrotechnical Commission, 2001.
Ilbahar, E.; Karaşan, A.; Cebi, S.; Kahraman, C. 2018. A novel approach to risk assessment for occupational health and safety using Pythagorean fuzzy AHP & fuzzy inference system, Safety Science 103: 124–136.
Iqbal, S.; Choudhry, R. M.; Holschemacher, K.; Ali, A., Tamošaitienė, J. 2015. Risk management in construction projects, Technological and Economic Development of Economy 21(1): 65–78. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.994582
Jamshidi, A.; Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Yakhchali, S. H.; Khaleghi, S. 2013. Developing a new fuzzy inference system for pipeline risk assessment, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 26(1): 197–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2012.10.010
Keramati, A.; Nazari-Shirkouhi, S.; Moshki, H.; Afshari-Mofrad, M.; Maleki-Berneti, E. 2013a. A novel methodology for evaluating the risk of CRM projects in fuzzy environment, Neural Computing and Applications 23(Suppl 1): S29–S53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-012-1216-7
Keramati, A.; Samadi, H.; Nazari-Shirkouhi, S. 2013b. Managing risk in information technology outsourcing: an approach for analysing and prioritising using fuzzy analytical network process, International Journal of Business Information Systems 12(2): 210–242. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBIS.2013.052052
Lee, E. M.; Jones, D. K. C. 2004. Landslide risk assessment. Thomas Telford Limited. https://doi.org/10.1680/lra.31715
Licata, G. 2012. Fuzzy logic, knowledge and natural language, in M. F. Azeem (Ed.). Fuzzy inference system – theory and applications. InTech, 3–18.
Liu, H. C.; Liu, L.; Liu, N.; Mao, L. X. 2012. Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis with extended VIKOR method under fuzzy environment, Expert Systems with Applications 39(17): 12926–12934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.05.031
Liu, J.; Li, Q.; Wang, Y. 2013. Risk analysis in ultra deep scientific drilling project – A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach, International Journal of Project Management 31: 449–458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.09.015
Liu, P.; Zhang, X.; Liu, W. 2011. A risk evaluation method for the high-tech project investment based on uncertain linguistic variables, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78: 40–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.011
Loch, C. H.; DeMeyer, A.; Pich, M. 2006. Managing the unknown: A new approach to managing high uncertainty and risk in projects. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470172377
Marcelino-Sádaba, S.; Pérez-Ezcurdia, A.; Lazcano, A. M. E.; Villanueva, P. 2014. Project risk management methodology for small firms, International Journal of Project Management 32(2): 327–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.05.009
Moura, H. P.; Teixeira, J. C.; Pires, B. 2007. Dealing with cost and time in the Portuguese construction industry, in CIB World Building Congress, 1252–1265.
Nieto-Morote, A.; Ruz-Vila, F. 2011. A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment, International Journal of Project Management 29(2): 220–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.02.002
Office of Government Commerce (OGC). 2002. Management of risk: Guidance for practitioners. London: The Stationery Office.
Omoregie, A.; Radford, D. 2006. Infrastructure delays and cost escalation: causes and effects in Nigeria, in Proceeding of Sixth International Postgraduate Research Conference, 2006, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands, 79–93.
PMI. 2003. Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK), in Chapter 11 in Risk management. Upper Darby, PA: Project Management Institute.
Razani, M.; Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Yakhchali, S. H. 2013. A novel fuzzy inference system for predicting roof fall rate in underground coal mines, Safety Science 55: 26–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.11.008
Rikhtegar, N.; Mansouri, N.; Oroumieh, A. A.; Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Zavadskas, E. K.; Kildienė, S. 2014. Environmental impact assessment based on group decision-making methods in mining projects, Economic Research - Ekonomska Istraživanja 27(1): 378–392. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2014.966971
Samadi, H.; Nazari-Shirkouhi, S.; Keramati, A. 2014. Identifying and analyzing risks and responses for risk management in information technology outsourcing projects under fuzzy environment, International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 13(6): 1283–1323. https://doi.org/10.1142/S021962201450076X
Schieg, M. 2006. Risk management in construction project management, Journal of Business Economics and Management 7(2): 77–83.
Shroder, J. F.; Davies, T. 2015. Landslide hazards, risks, and disasters. Hazards and Disasters Series, Elsevier Inc.
Tah, J. H. M.; Carr, V. 2000. A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic, Construction Management and Economics 18(4): 491–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190050024905
Tamošaitienė, J.; Turskis, Z.; Zavadskas, E. K. 2008. Modeling of contractor selection taking into account different risk level, in The 25th International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction (ISARC 2008), 26–29 June 2008, Vilnius, Lithuania, 676–681.
Tamošaitienė, J.; Zavadskas, E. K.; Turskis, Z. 2013. Multi-criteria risk assessment of a construction project, in Procedia Computer Science: First International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management (ITQM 2013), 16–18 May 2013, Suzhou, China, 17: 129–133.
TBC. 2001. Integrated risk management framework. Cat. No. BT22-78/2001 [online], [cited 12 May 2018]. Available from Internet: http://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/corporate/risk-management/guide-integrated-risk-management.html
Tseng, C. L.; Lin, K. Y.; Sundararajan, S. K. 2005. Managing cost overrun risk in project funding allocation, Annals of Operations Research 135: 127–153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-005-6238-4
Tüysüz, F.; Kahraman, C. 2006. Project risk evaluation using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: An application to information technology projects, International Journal of Intelligent Systems 21: 559–584. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20148
Valipour, A.; Yahaya, N.; Noor, N. M.; Mardani, A.; Antuchevičienė, J. 2016. A new hybrid fuzzy cybernetic analytic network process model to identify shared risks in PPP projects, International Journal of Strategic Property Management 20(4): 409–426. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1210547
Vidal, L. A.; Marle, F. 2012. A systems thinking approach for project vulnerability management, Kybernetes 41(1/2): 206–228. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684921211213043
Vrijling, J. K.; Hengel, W.; Houben, R. J. 1995. A framework for risk evaluation, Journal of Hazardous Materials 43: 245–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3894(95)91197-V
Wang, S. Q.; Dulaimi, M. F.; Aguria, M. Y. 2004. Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries, Construction Management and Economics 22(3): 237–252. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144619032000124689
Xu, Y.; Yeung, J. F. Y.; Chan, A. P. C.; Chan, D. W. M.; Wang, S. Q.; Ke, Y. 2010. Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China – A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach, Automation in Construction 19(7): 929–943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2010.06.006
Yakhchali, S. H. 2014. Elena project guideline. Iran: OBOUR Press.
Yazdani-Chamzini, A. 2014. Proposing a new methodology based on fuzzy logic for tunnelling risk assessment, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 20(1): 82–94. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2013.843583
Yazdani-Chamzini, A.; Yakhchali, S. H.; Mahmoodian, M. 2013. Risk ranking of tunnel construction projects by using the ELECTRE technique under a fuzzy environment, International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management 8(1): 1–14.
Zadeh, L. A. 1965. Fuzzy sets, Information and Control 8(3): 338–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X
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