Does market react to tax reduction news? An empirical study on corporate tax reduction of Bangladesh in 2017-18
Abstract
Purpose – This study tries to investigate the capital market reaction to the corporate tax reduction announcement (37.5% from 40%) in Bangladesh for publicly listed Banking, Insurance and Financial Institutions of 2017-18.
Methodology – This study applied an event study approach to identify any significant average abnormal returns as well as cumulative average abnormal returns of all the publicly listed Banks, Insurances and Financial institutions around the announcement period.
Findings – Insignificant average abnormal return (AAR) experienced in case of Banking and Insurance industry on event day, except the financial institutions which have generated a statistically significant abnormal negative return on announcement day. The combined AAR of all three sectors has also generated statistically insignificant return around event windows which suggest that investors did not consider tax reduction news as valuable information for investment decision nor considering it as an essential factor of share value.
Limitation – The study did not consider any possible extraneous variable that could result in insignificant reactions.
Practical Implication – The findings of this research would considerably contribute to the financial and economic policy formulation while taken into consideration the possible impact of the policy over the capital market of Bangladesh.
Originality – This study makes a considerable input to the research in the area of taxes linked to the behavioural finance applying the unique variable of investor’s reactions.
Keyword : tax reduction, corporate income tax, capital market, event study, abnormal return, cumulative abnormal return
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Adnan, A., Hossain, A., Adnan, A., & Hossain, A. (2016). Impact of M&A announcement on acquiring and target firm’s stock price: An event analysis approach. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(5), 228-232.
Alshammari, T. (2012). Dividend policies in Kuwait. Paper presented at the Las Vegas International Academic Conference.
Amoako-Adu, B., Rashid, M., & Stebbins, M. (1992). Capital gains tax and equity values: Empirical test of stock price reaction to the introduction and reduction of capital gains tax exemption. Journal of Banking & Finance, 16(2), 275-287. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(92)90014-Q
Amromin, G., Harrison, P., Liang, N., & Sharpe, S. A. (2005). How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices and corporate payout policy? Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.873879
Amromin, G., Harrison, P., & Sharpe, S. (2008). How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices? Financial Management, 37(4), 625-646. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2008.00028.x
Anderson, T. W., & Darling, D. A. (1954). A test of goodness of fit. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 49(268), 765-769. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1954.10501232
Auerbach, A. J. (2018). Measuring the effects of corporate tax cuts. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4), 97-120. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.4.97
Ayers, B. C., Lefanowicz, C. E., & Robinson, J. R. (2003). Shareholder taxes in acquisition premiums: The effect of capital gains taxation. The Journal of Finance, 58(6), 2783-2801. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1540-6261.2003.00622.x
Baltagi, B. H., Li, D., & Li, Q. (2006). Transaction tax and stock market behavior: Evidence from an emerging market. Empirical Economics, 31(2), 393-408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0022-9
Balvers, R. J., Cosimano, T. F., & McDonald, B. (1990). Predicting stock returns in an efficient market. The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1109-1128. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02429.x
Barclay, M. J. (1987). Dividends, taxes, and common stock prices: The ex-dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the income tax. Journal of Financial Economics, 19(1), 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90027-4
Bessembinder, H., & Zhang, F. (2013). Firm characteristics and long-run stock returns after corporate events. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(1), 83-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.02.009
Binder, J. (1998). The event study methodology since 1969. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 11(2), 111-137. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008295500105
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1974). The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 1(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(74)90006-3
Blouin, J. L., Raedy, J. S., & Shackelford, D. A. (2000). Capital gains holding periods and equity trading: Evidence from the 1998 tax act (NBER Working Paper No. 7827). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7827
Blouin, J. L., Raedy, J. S., & Shackelford, D. A. (2002). Equity price pressure from the 1998 reduction in the capital gains holding period. Journal of the American Taxation Association, 24(s-1), 70-93. https://doi.org/10.2308/jata.2002.24.s-1.70
Boyd, J. H., & Jagannathan, R. (1994). Ex-dividend price behavior of common stocks. The Review of Financial Studies, 7(4), 711-741. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/7.4.711
Brennan, M. J. (1970). Taxes, market valuation and corporate financial policy. National Tax Journal, 23(4), 417-427.
Brooks, C., Godfrey, C., Hillenbrand, C., & Money, K. (2016). Do investors care about corporate taxes? Journal of Corporate Finance, 38, 218-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.01.013
Brown, J. R., Liang, N., & Weisbenner, S. J. (2004). Executive financial incentives and payout policy: Firm responses to the 2003 dividend tax cut (NBER Working Paper No. 11002). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w11002
Brown, P., Ferguson, A., & Sherry, S. (2010). Investor behaviour in response to Australia’s capital gains tax. Accounting & Finance, 50(4), 783-808. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2010.00352.x
Brown, P. R., Clout, V. J., & Ferguson, A. (2015). Market reactions to the proposed resources rent tax. Paper presented at the 2015 Financial Markets & Corporate Governance Conference. CEIC. (2019). Market capitalisation: % of GDP. CEIC Data. Retrieved 07 July 2019, from CEIC Holdings Limited https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/market-capitalisation--nominal-gdp
Chan, L. K., Hamao, Y., & Lakonishok, J. (1991). Fundamentals and stock returns in Japan. The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1739-1764. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04642.x
Charoenrook, A. (2005). Does sentiment matter (Unpublished working paper). Vanderbilt University.
Chetty, R., & Saez, E. (2005). Dividend taxes and corporate behavior: Evidence from the 2003 dividend tax cut. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(3), 791-833. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/120.3.791
Collins, J. H., & Kemsley, D. (2000). Capital gains and dividend taxes in firm valuation: evidence of triple taxation. The Accounting Review, 75(4), 405-427. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2000.75.4.405
Cutler, D. M. (1988). Tax reform and the stock market: An asset price approach. The American Economic Review, 78(5), 1107-1117.
Cutler, D. M., Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). What moves stock prices? (NBER Working Paper No. 2538). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2014). The sum of all FEARS investor sentiment and asset prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu072
Dhaliwal, D., Li, O. Z., & Trezevant, R. (2003). Is a dividend tax penalty incorporated into the return on a firm’s common stock? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 35(2), 155-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(03)00017-X
Dissanaike, G. (1994). On the computation of returns in tests of the stock market overreaction hypothesis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 18(6), 1083-1094. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(94)00061-1
Downs, T. W., & Tehranian, H. (1988). Predicting stock price responses to tax policy changes. The American Economic Review, 78(5), 1118-1130.
Edwards, C. H., Lang, M. H., Maydew, E. L., & Shackelford, D. A. (2004). Germany’s repeal of the corporate capital gains tax: The equity market response. Journal of the American Taxation Association, 26(s-1), 73-97. https://doi.org/10.2308/jata.2004.26.s-1.73
Elton, E. J., & Gruber, M. J. (1970). Marginal stockholder tax rates and the clientele effect. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 52(1), 68-74. https://doi.org/10.2307/1927599
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., & Rentzler, J. (1984). The ex-dividend day behavior of stock prices; A reexamination of the clientele effect: A comment. The Journal of Finance, 39(2), 551-556. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb02328.x
Forster, K. (2005). Stock prices and real economic activity empirical results for Germany (Working paper). Research Notes, Deutsche Bank Research.
Gadarowski, C., Meric, G., Welsh, C., & Meric, I. (2007). Dividend tax cut and security prices: Examining the effect of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003. Financial Management, 36(4), 89-106.
Gallemore, J., Maydew, E. L., & Thornock, J. R. (2014). The reputational costs of tax avoidance. Contemporary Accounting Research, 31(4), 1103-1133. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12055
Getry, W. M., Kemsley, D., & Mayer, C. J. (2003). Dividend taxes and share prices: evidence from real estate investment trusts. The Journal of Finance, 58(1), 261-282. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00524
Giaccotto, C., & Sfiridis, J. M. (1996). Hypothesis testing in event studies: The case of variance changes. Journal of Economics and Business, 48(4), 349-370. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-6195(96)00019-7
Grammatikos, T., & Yourougou, P. (1990). Market expectations of the effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on banking organizations. Journal of Banking & Finance, 14(6), 1171-1187. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(90)90008-P
Grinblatt, M. S., Masulis, R. W., & Titman, S. (1984). The valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(4), 461-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(84)90011-4
Hanlon, M., & Slemrod, J. (2009). What does tax aggressiveness signal? Evidence from stock price reactions to news about tax shelter involvement. Journal of Public Economics, 93(1-2), 126-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.09.004
Harris, T. S., & Kemsley, D. (1999). Dividend taxation in firm valuation: new evidence. Journal of Accounting Research, 37(2), 275-291. https://doi.org/10.2307/2491410
Hayn, C. (1989). Tax attributes as determinants of shareholder gains in corporate acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 23(1), 121-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(89)90008-1
Hill, M. D., Kubick, T. R., Lockhart, G. B., & Wan, H. (2013). The effectiveness and valuation of political tax minimization. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(8), 2836-2849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.04.002
Hirshleifer, D. A., Lim, S. S., & Teoh, S. H. (2004). Disclosure to an audience with limited attention. SSRN 604142. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.604142
Howton, S., & Howton, S. D. (2006). The corporate response to the 2003 dividend tax cut. Journal of Applied Finance, 16(1).
Hu, S.-y. (1998). The effects of the stock transaction tax on the stock market–experiences from Asian markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 6(3-4), 347-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-538X(98)00017-1
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329.
Klein, P. (1999). The capital gain lock-in effect and equilibrium returns. Journal of Public Economics, 71(3), 355-378. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00080-2
Lang, L. H., & Litzenberger, R. H. (1989). Dividend announcements: Cash flow signalling vs. free cash flow hypothesis? Journal of Financial Economics, 24(1), 181-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(89)90077-9
Lang, M. H., & Shackelford, D. A. (2000). Capitalisation of capital gains taxes: Evidence from stock price reactions to the 1997 rate reduction. Journal of Public Economics, 76(1), 69-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00084-5
Lehn, K., & Poulsen, A. (1989). Free cash flow and stockholder gains in going private transactions. The Journal of Finance, 44(3), 771-787. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb04390.x
Lightner, T. A., Morrow, M., Ricketts, R. C., & Riley, M. E. (2008). Investor response to a reduction in the dividend tax rate: Evidence from the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003. Journal of the American Taxation Association, 30(2), 21-46. https://doi.org/10.2308/jata.2008.30.2.21
Lind, D. A., Marchal, W. G., Wathen, S. A., & Waite, C. A. (2000). Basic statistics for business and economics. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Boston.
Litzenberger, R. H., & Ramaswamy, K. (1982). The effects of dividends on common stock prices tax effects or information effects? The Journal of Finance, 37(2), 429-443. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1982.tb03565.x
MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
Mian, G. M., & Sankaraguruswamy, S. (2012). Investor sentiment and stock market response to earnings news. The Accounting Review, 87(4), 1357-1384. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50158
Michaely, R. (1991). Ex‐dividend day stock price behavior: The case of the 1986 Tax Reform Act. The Journal of Finance, 46(3), 845-859. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03768.x
Miller, M. H., & Scholes, M. S. (1978). Dividends and taxes. Journal of Financial Economics, 6(4), 333364. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(78)90009-0
Miller, M. H., & Scholes, M. S. (1982). Dividends and taxes: Some empirical evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 90(6), 1118-1141. https://doi.org/10.1086/261114
Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. The American, 1, 3.
Penman, S. H. (1987). The distribution of earnings news over time and seasonalities in aggregate stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(2), 199-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(87)90039-0
Poterba, J. M., & Weisbenner, S. J. (2001). Capital gains tax rules, tax‐loss trading, and turn‐of‐the‐year returns. The Journal of Finance, 56(1), 353-368. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00328
Rigobon, R., & Sack, B. (2003). Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(2), 639-669. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303321675473
Ryan, P., & Taffler, R. J. (2004). Are economically significant stock returns and trading volumes driven by firm‐specific news releases? Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 31(1‐2), 49-82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2004.0002.x
Savin, N. E. (1984). Multiple hypothesis testing. Handbook of Econometrics, 2, 827-879. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4412(84)02006-7
Shane, P. B., & Stock, T. (2006). Security analyst and stock market efficiency in anticipating tax-motivated income shifting. The Accounting Review, 81(1), 227-250. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2006.81.1.227
Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient markets: An introduction to behavioural finance. OUP Oxford. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198292279.001.0001
Sialm, C. (2009). Tax changes and asset pricing. American Economic Review, 99(4), 1356-1383. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.4.1356
Stejskalová, J. (2016). Impact of the information on tax burden on stock prices (MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics).
Stejskalová, J. (2017). The Impact of attention to news about tax changes on the stock market. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65(6), 2113-2121. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201765062113
Umlauf, S. R. (1993). Transaction taxes and the behavior of the Swedish stock market. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(2), 227-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90005-V
Wagner, A. F., Zeckhauser, R. J., & Ziegler, A. (2018). Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade. Journal of Financial Economics, 130(2), 428-451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.06.013
Watts, R. L., & Zimmerman, J. L. (1986). Positive accounting theory. Prentice-Hall Inc.
Whitworth, J., & Rao, R. P. (2010). Do Tax law changes influence ex‐dividend stock price behavior? Evidence from 1926 to 2005. Financial Management, 39(1), 419-445. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2010.01078.x
Wren-Lewis, S. (2016). A general theory of austerity (Working paper No. 14). Blavatnik School of Government Studies.